fbpx

More on the Consequences of a Supreme Court Decision in the Obamacare Case

In my last post, I wrote about the consequences if Obamacare loses in the Supreme Court in King v. Burwell.  My basic point is that a Supreme Court decision holding that federal exchanges cannot receive subsidies will create an enormous fight between President Obama and the Republican Congress. Bill Levin, who recently wrote a post on the cert grant at this site, now has a post at Powerline addressing the same issue. I strongly recommend his post.

Bill is more optimistic than I am about the effects of such a Supreme Court decision. One of his main arguments is that the public understands that the Democrats are responsible for Obamacare and that any problems it has will be seen as the fault of the Democrats. Perhaps, but this would have to be true even though the five Republican justices decide that the subsidies are illegal over the votes of the four Democratic justices.

Ultimately, the biggest advantage that the Democrats have is that the media is on their side. They will portray the dispute as having been caused by the five Republican justices and will argue that the Republicans can easily fix the problem by simply returning to the status quo. It may be that the Republicans can prevail, but they will have to do so over the heads of the media.

It is true that the media is less protective of Obama these days, since he is both a lame duck and relatively unpopular. But that does not mean they will not protect progressive legislation and accomplishments, which they still strongly support. My guess is that the media is willing to accept that Obama is not a great politician, but they are not willing to question that his policies are correct.

It is an interesting question how much benefit the Democrats derive from the biased media. I have seen estimates that claim that the Democrats would fall from 50 percent support to 30 percent support without the support of the media. My guess is that if the media supported the Republicans as much as they currently support the Democrats, the Republicans would receive about 65 percent of the vote. To compete, the Democrats would have to become far more conservative.

Reader Discussion

Law & Liberty welcomes civil and lively discussion of its articles. Abusive comments will not be tolerated. We reserve the right to delete comments - or ban users - without notification or explanation.

on November 16, 2014 at 15:00:06 pm

"I have seen estimates that claim that the Democrats would fall from 50 percent support to 30 percent support without the support of the media."

Could you please give references for this?

Of course, it is idle, in a way, to speculate what politics in this country would look like if the media were not so biased in favor of the Democrats, the left and progressivism. For the media not to have the biases it does, one would have to rewrite the intellectual and social history of the country over the last 100 years or so. The media did not acquire its biases in a vacuum.

read full comment
Image of djf
djf
on November 16, 2014 at 19:26:13 pm

Further to the second paragraph of the above comment, I suspect that the effect of news media bias, by itself, would be substantially less in the absence of the reinforcement the news media's progressive message receives from almost every other opinion shaping institution in the country (except talk radio, of course). The progressive messaging people receive is stereophonic, coming at them from multiple directions.

And, for younger people, much of it is internalized by the time they reach adulthood as a result of the bias in the education system.

read full comment
Image of djf
djf
on January 22, 2015 at 12:17:26 pm

[…] More on the Fallout from a Possible Supreme Court Decision in the Obamacare Case […]

read full comment
Image of DOJ’s Reply Brief in King: They’re under Water and They Know It - Freedom's Floodgates
DOJ’s Reply Brief in King: They’re under Water and They Know It - Freedom's Floodgates

Law & Liberty welcomes civil and lively discussion of its articles. Abusive comments will not be tolerated. We reserve the right to delete comments - or ban users - without notification or explanation.