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What Bitcoin Needs to Succeed as a Currency

In my last post, I argued that cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, have the potential to be competitive with fiat money because individuals’ trust in fiat money is necessarily limited by politicians’ control over its value. But I say potential, because while the Bitcoin is used as a currency in monetarily oppressive regimes, like Venezuela, it does not function as a currency in more established regimes. That, of course, does not mean that people do not hold it in nations like the United States. Some do, but most of these hold it for only small investments and use it to pay for a few items as a kind of hobby. The vast majority hold most of their investments in dollar denominated assets and use cash to pay their day-to-day expenses. For most people, Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is not yet a good store of value. It is simply too volatile compared to the dollar, and risk-averse people do not want to hold their wealth in an uncertain unit of account.

Here I sketch what needs to happen for Bitcoin or possibly some other cryptocurrency to gain greater market share against more mature currencies and ultimately against the dollar itself. (A fuller account is given in my paper with Kyle Roche). Cryptocurrency needs to continue to gain in value to attract investors, but also to lessen volatility to attract people who would like to hold it for more general purposes like payment.

For a crypocurrency with a fixed supply, like Bitcoin, these two forces may sometimes be in tension—although speculation may drive up a currency’s value, the inherent volatility that comes along with such upward swings can be destabilizing for a currency. But this may not be a fatal flaw. If Bitcoin comes to enjoy a steady growth in demand, it will be able to maintain an acceptable level of volatility while at the same time reaching a broader market. To be clear, to become more successful and widely used, it does not need to become less volatile than the dollar. There are many less successful currencies against which it could compete and it would gain much value by replacing or complementing gold as the basic hedge against currency devaluation.

There are two important conditions for this success to happen. First, in order for Bitcoin to become an attractive alternative to fiat currency, monetarily-oppressive currencies must grow less stable and ever-more oppressive on the population that uses them. Given the renewed enthusiasm about socialism throughout the world, I am not worried about the fulfillment of this condition. When socialists run out of other people’s money, they print more of it for themselves.

The second condition is more open-ended. There has to be continued strength in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Most people do not have the skills to use Bitcoin directly. Thus, they need cyptocurrency “wallets” and exchanges, like Coinbase. Fortunately these institutions have gotten a lot more professional since the days when Mt. Gox lost hundreds of million dollars worth of Bitcoin. Even more importantly, cryptocurrency needs to enjoy continued growth in the markets that surround it. Future and forward markets make the price discovery process more efficient and help dampen volatility. Permitting exchange traded funds in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will allow more people to hold it as part of their portfolio. That development will thicken the market and have a stabilizing effect.

Note that these wallets, future markets, and ETFs, are not order without law. They are institutions regulated by our law and administrators. Thus, paradoxically, the success of Bitcoin may depend on the state’s willingness to apply the neutral principles of its law to a new form of property that may turn out to be competitor to one of the greatest powers of the state—its fiat money. Bitcoin’s ultimate success would not be rooted only in technological innovation but also in the venerable institutions that protect our liberty—the rule of law and constitutional protection for property.

Reader Discussion

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on March 26, 2019 at 14:02:22 pm

More participation in the options market for Bitcoin could stabilize it as well. An option is inherently a bet on volatility, as you can buy an option going both ways and if the underlying currency goes up or down a lot you can win, but if it does neither you lose. But an option's market inherently requires trust of the institution providing the option. And without the big banks or other well known institutional actors, that trust has been lacking (so far of Deribit is the only options provider and it simply doesn't have a long term track record yet). Its possible that ethereum based option contracts bitcoin could provide the trust that so far has been lacking.

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Devin Watkins
on March 26, 2019 at 14:19:13 pm

Trust? - HMMMM!
I suppose that is possible if only we munchkins could see the man behind the curtain. what wizardy is this that conjures money out of the ethereum?

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gabe
on March 31, 2019 at 15:32:24 pm

and now we see the man behind the curtain, albeit in a Guy Fawkes mask:

https://www.foxnews.com/tech/crypto-promoter-unmasked-accused-of-fraud-to-lure-investors-via-youtube

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gabe
on June 16, 2019 at 03:18:37 am

[…] What Bitcoin Needs to Succeed as a Currency […]

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What Does Bitcoin Must Succeed as a Forex? [POLICYbrief] | Blockchain News Publishing and Advertising
on June 16, 2019 at 17:03:29 pm

For bitcoin to succeed it would have to project a collective consciousness that held together by shared moral characteristics such as religion, language, historical circumstances and a means of enforcing contracts. Money is mark of sovereignty., Ancient examples include Christ's encounter with the Pharisees and the Athenian coinage decree. Modern example is North's creation of a irredeemable paper currency. Hobbes said money was mark of sovereignty and an institution of the sovereign. The sovereign's first duty is to protect his inhabitants way of life from invasion by another group. Persons do not identify with an electronic impulse. Cryptocurrencies are gambling devices and possible ways to hedge against currency devaluations. Inflation is always fiscal incompetence, meaning inability to properly fund a State activity. The Roman Emperor had a basket of money, the fiscus, out of which he pain retainers including troops. He gradually absorbed the State. See Tacitus' remarks. He was a historian, not a Supreme Court Justice or a Nobel laureate in economics. Modern man does not know any history.

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Charles R Courtney
on June 16, 2019 at 17:05:10 pm

Bitcoin is a gambling device while real money is a symbol of nation/state. The State exists to protect a way of life.

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Charles Courtney

Law & Liberty welcomes civil and lively discussion of its articles. Abusive comments will not be tolerated. We reserve the right to delete comments - or ban users - without notification or explanation.