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Clinton is a Greater Threat to Constitutional Jurisprudence than Trump

Ilya Somin has disagreed with me that Trump is likely to be better for constitutional jurisprudence than Clinton. But his arguments rely on the implausible premise that Trump is likely to change the jurisprudential commitments of the Republican party. Even more importantly, he does not address the elephant in the room: Clinton’s appointments would likely return us to a Court unconstrained by our fundamental law.

Ilya is right that if Trump could change the Republican’s basic philosophy of judges from originalism to something else, that would itself impose long-term harm to nation. But Trump’s election is unlikely to have this effect. Trump is not coming into power with a parliamentary majority and or even at the head of a well entrenched ideological movement.   The way to think of Trump is that has rented the party for his own ambitions and that he will be forming a coalition with orthodox Republicans who will make up the vast majority of Republicans in the legislature. He is thus going to have to deal with the Republicans who have an independent power base and who hope to be there long after he leaves. That not only includes legislators but the Republican establishment.  And as in coalitions generally, he will focus on the issues most important to him where there is least resistance from his partners.

Of course, that does not mean Trump would be without power. On issues where Republicans are divided or where there is substantial populist sentiment on his side, he may transform the party toward his policies, many of which are indeed very bad.  Free trade is a paradigm example. But appointments to the Supreme Court are the opposite kind of issue. Republicans are pretty united,  and it is an issue dominated by elites. Are members of  Federalist Society—the single most important conservative elite in this respect—going to change their views of what makes a good judge because Trump becomes President? That elite was even able to squash an appointment of Harriet Miers that George W. Bush wanted to make.  Trump recognizes this point and that is the reason that he has embraced Republican orthodoxy on judicial appointments by putting out a list of sound judges he would consider appointing.

And that orthodoxy does not embrace an extreme deference that would countenance such acts as discrimination against Muslim citizens. It is true that that justices appointed might be more deferential than Ilya would like and less likely to interpret the Constitution as abstractly. But there is a range of views already on this subject among originalists, as my own work on deference and abstraction shows.

Ilya also slights the disaster of Clinton presidency to the Supreme Court and the rule of law. She surely will have two appointments—to  Scalia’s seat and to Ginsburg’s. And  a third with some substantial probability- Kennedy’s. Even in the first case a strong progressive majority would emerge with the four youngest judges likely all progressives and in the latter case a progressive majority would last for decades. It is true that Republican party would still be committed to originalism, but that commitment would avail the nation little because of the long term effect of the Clinton’s appointments. And as more non-originalist precedents pile up, it would create more obstacles for originalism—how to overrule such cases without becoming a radically disruptive jurisprudence that may be of interest to a few academics but has little real world appeal. Moreover, Clinton’s appointments would have a more dramatic effect on jurisprudence than Republican appointments, because most of the bar and the academy would encourage further leftward drift.

There are many reasons to oppose Trump, but  to make the case against him it is not necessary to downplay the difference that Clinton appointments would make to the rule of law.

Reader Discussion

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on June 06, 2016 at 11:50:47 am

Spot-on!!!!

All one need do is look at the effect on the Court of the Obama appointments.

Do we really want more of this. goodness gracious, I can see / hear it now: "It takes an (international legal) village to interpret a constitution."

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Image of gabe
gabe
on June 06, 2016 at 15:52:23 pm

ditto everything Gabe said

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Image of Scott Amorian
Scott Amorian
on June 06, 2016 at 17:59:49 pm

So far as I can tell, the author is claiming that a Trump administration would be better than country any Democratic administration, no matter who was President*. I'll be impressed the first time anyone who evidently believes that actually admits it. It would certainly clarify the discussion.

* Within reason. I am imagining a prominent, mainstream (relative to the Democratic party) individual. Biden, say, or Kerry.

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Image of Ken Kelly
Ken Kelly
on June 06, 2016 at 20:50:32 pm

I do not generally respond to comments, but the claim that I would favor the election of Trump over all Democrats is false. I am not even saying that Trump is superior to Clinton overall. He is very troubling on a number of dimensions. Republicans are better than Democrats on jurisprudence generally, simply because the Republican presidents are more committed to nominating jurists who follow the original meaning of the Constitution.

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Image of John O. McGinnis
John O. McGinnis
on June 06, 2016 at 21:17:07 pm

Trump will literally ignore Supreme Court decisions he doesn't like, a la our most most well known populist president, Andrew Jackson. Do you honestly think he would abide by decisions restricting his own power?

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Image of Aaron
Aaron
on June 06, 2016 at 21:21:42 pm

John:

Ditto! Ditto! Ditto!

and in case any of you folks missed it - The Black Robes is (unfortunately) where IT IS HAPPENING!

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Image of gabe
gabe
on June 07, 2016 at 09:46:48 am

"populist President" & ignoring Supreme Court decisions?
-
Do you mean to say Barack Hussein Obama/ Of course unlike Ole' Hickory, Obama sits astride a metaphorical "white horse." - so I guess that is different.

seriously, however, it seems pointless to level all these charges against The Trumpster without evidence to support those charges. There is simply no record to indicate what he would or would not do if confronted with an adverse decision. whereas The Fat Lady has demonstrated from her earliest involvement in politics (going back to Watergate) that she will do ANYTHING to get her way and ignore any precedent, etc that conflicts with her own interests.

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Image of gabe
gabe
on June 07, 2016 at 14:22:48 pm

[…] agree with this: Clinton would be much worse than Trump, who doesn’t have any principles, whereas hers are […]

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Image of Constitutional Jurisprudence | Transterrestrial Musings
Constitutional Jurisprudence | Transterrestrial Musings
on June 08, 2016 at 00:36:40 am

bunk. Trump is our only hope to keep the Republic.

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Image of hillaryforprison
hillaryforprison
on June 08, 2016 at 16:12:28 pm

[…] pair of legal scholars, John McGinnis of Northwestern University (here and here) and Ilya Somin of George Mason University (here and here), have been carrying on a spirited debate […]

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Image of The World Ends in 2021 – Wall Street Journal | Information
The World Ends in 2021 – Wall Street Journal | Information
on June 08, 2016 at 18:39:11 pm

[…] pair of legal scholars, John McGinnis of Northwestern University (here and here) and Ilya Somin of George Mason University (here and here), have been carrying on a spirited debate […]

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Image of The World Ends in 2021
The World Ends in 2021
on June 09, 2016 at 18:50:37 pm

And here is a decision (albeit by the crazy 9th Circuit) that SHOULD BE IGNORED:

https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/06/09/ninth-circuit-court-no-second-amendment-right-to-conceal-a-firearm/

So I guess the 9th Circuit thinks (and Hillary would agree) that the right to bear arms MUST, of necessity and logically, mean one must "bear arms" openly.

Still think Trumpster is a bigger problem than Hillary?

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Image of gabe
gabe
on June 10, 2016 at 14:36:42 pm

And now for "something (slightly) different: (apologies to Monty Python):

Here is an interesting take on The Trumpster and one I would recommend that
readers of this blog read dispassionately. Perhaps, the #NeverTrump - ers may perceive their own ideological excess as evidenced by this rather astute essay.

Enjoy! (with a nice glass of chianti)! as we ideological purists cannibalize each other!

http://thefederalist.com/2016/...

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Image of gabe
gabe

Law & Liberty welcomes civil and lively discussion of its articles. Abusive comments will not be tolerated. We reserve the right to delete comments - or ban users - without notification or explanation.